State of the art for Bitcoin bull run and projection from 15th February 2021

This articles analyzes the successive days where daily bitcoin lowest price, ‘Low’, doesn’t cross the Moving Average 100, ‘MA100’, using $BTC data from 01/01/2012 to 15/02/2021 as shown in Figure 1 below. After analyzing the current situation in the market, two scenarios are proposed on Figure 5.

Figure 1 — BTC log10 since 01–01–2012

The indicator will be the normalized difference between the lowest daily price and MA100, normalized by the lowest price. We define « norm » as follow:

norm = (Low-MA100)/Low

Figure 2 — the norm indicator mentioned above

Figure 2 represents the norm indicator that has been calculated from the formula above. The analysis focuses on successive days over the red line, i.e when the norm>0 or $BTC doesn’t cross the MA100. The current norm value is about 0.39 while the highest value marked by the horizontal black line is 0.766. It demonstrates that we still have room to reach higher price from a statistical perspective. Importantly, we are looking at the difference between lowest point and MA100 — the difference between the highest point and MA100 will exhibit much higher value.

Figure 3 — Histogram of successive days where BTC lowest value didn’t cross the Moving Average 100

The histogram above shows the distribution of successive days where the lowest daily price remained over the MA100. The highest occurence is found in the 0–20 days range and mainly occurs during range and consolidation market phases. At writing time, we currently have 130 successive days where BTC>MA100 which is typical value for extremely strong bullish trend.

Figure 4 — Bitcoin price with specific color where Low>MA100 for more than 110 days

Figure 3 exhibits the log10 $BTC closing price. Lines in red represents the bull run where successive BTC>MA100 days exceeded 110 days. The 110 value has been chosen while 80% quantile from histogram in Figure 1. Line in orange represents a total of 130 days and is the current run. The ‘X’ in green is the lowest point the day after the price crossed the MA100.

With no surprise, the orange line demonstrates we are in the middle of an extremely strong uptrend with 130 days without crossing the MA100. However, the most important features could be where the two blue arrows are pointing. It does show that the only time we had two strong uptrend in a row, $BTC went parabolic to perform X100 in one year.

Figure 5 — same than Figure 4 but with two scenarios as projections

Figure 5 exhibits two different scenarios.

Scenario 1 in blue:

Bitcoin goes through a period of consolidation for the next weeks/months and will break $100k by the end of the year

Scenario 2 in green:

Institutional FOMO will push $BTC above $100k within the next weeks/months. It will allow the price to reach $1M by the end of the year before to start the new bear market

Conclusion:

I strongly believe one of this two scenarios will take place. The longest period without crossing the MA100 has been 162 days. We still have 32 days from a statistical perspective before breaking a new record for the price staying above the MA100. It is also possible to break the 162 days record and staying above the MA100 for longer.